24 October 2012

You Read It Here First

Back in June, I made this prediction:

Obama will lose both Virginia and North Carolina by more than 10 points. The notion that either state can now be considered "purple" is laughable. The number of "experts" in academia, government, and the media which will see (and are seeing) their credibility ruined will be talked about for years to come.

Now comes this bit of news today:

Facing a Mitt Romney surge in North Carolina polls, Team Obama is poised to pull back forces in the state that hosted the Democratic National Convention and Democratic advisors suggest that Virginia may be next to fall.

More here.

A lot can still happen, but things seem to be hardening for Romney. Though my 10 point prediction may end up a bit over-optimistic, Romney's momentum appears to be unstoppable. We shall see.


The History Book Guy said...

Romney will win (about 95% sure) I only leave room for voter stupidity, which I'm sure like me you are aware of. Romney will win VA, NC, and OH. I just wanted to comment on this. I've been following this blog for a while and enjoy all the posts you upload.


Richard G. Williams, Jr. said...

I hope you're right E.D., though I remain worried about Ohio, even if there are a couple other paths to 270. IF Romney wins Ohio, that will definitely be the canary in the coal mine for "the one" and, I believe, will indicate a landslide victory for Romney. Every historic indicator now favors Romney - trends, polls at this point in the campaign, energy, etc.

Interesting that you should mention the "Men Who Built America" series. I just stumbled across it online the other day. Just EP 1 is available and I don't have DISH or cable, but it does look quite interesting. Wish I could just subscribe to the History Channel and the Discovery Channel.

Thanks for commenting, chime in more often.

The History Book Guy said...

It's a pretty good series. I definately feel the same about the cable issue, wish I could just subsribe to channels I WANT, there are about a dozen (or more) I could do without. I'll be sure to comment more often. Thanks for replying.

13thBama said...


"The Men Who Built America" is pretty good, though I can't help but think it is intended to show capitalism in a bad light. No, I don't deny that there was some ruthlessness among them. One will note, however, none of them were socialists!

Richard G. Williams, Jr. said...

Assuming we survive another 5 years, I think you'll see more flexibility with that kind of thing - much of it, I believe, will be available online, i.e. ROKU, Youtube, etc.

Consumer demand and technology seems to be driving everything that way.

Richard G. Williams, Jr. said...

Hey 13B - I was not able to watch the whole episode yet. I'll try to post some thoughts once I do. There were certainly some excesses, Rockefeller was quite ruthless. However, I would rather be at the mercy of the marketplace than an all powerful government any day of the week.

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm. Whatta ya think of your prediction now?

Richard G. Williams, Jr. said...

Anon - I think if you're looking for someone to predict elections, look somewhere else. Admittedly, I was quite shocked. Though there's a lot more to it, I underestimated the power of incumbency.